simardcasanova’s avatarsimardcasanova’s Twitter Archive—№ 22,636

      1. …in reply to @jhaushofer
        @jhaushofer @an_perrin If you look at swing states polling and not just at the aggregate, Biden’s lead is overall larger than Clinton’s (in PA, WI, MI, MN) Some usually red states are also a tossup: AZ, GA
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    1. …in reply to @simardcasanova
      @jhaushofer @an_perrin Plus it is my understanding that 538's model for 2020 is not the same as the one for 2016, so you would need to compare the 2020 model with the 2016 data
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  1. …in reply to @simardcasanova
    @jhaushofer @an_perrin (I am personally not a big fan of these models. I think directly looking at the polls at the state level gives a much better understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of both candidates)
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    1. …in reply to @simardcasanova
      @jhaushofer @an_perrin (I would also argue, contrary to a much popular argument, that polls are actually probably more accurate today’s compared to 2016: pollsters have an incentive to correct their past mistakes, and even if it doesn’t mean they solved all of them, they probably addressed some)
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      1. …in reply to @simardcasanova
        @jhaushofer @an_perrin Here’s another evidence (with national polls) that Biden enjoys a much stronger support than Clinton: @geoffreyvs/1312776174364487681?s=20
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