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@dataandpolitics Statistically speaking, if people make random guesses sometime some would seem true, in the same sense as a broken clock is right twice a day. I also think about all who flew away but nothing happened: huge survivor bias!Permalink
Mood +3 🙂
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@dataandpolitics That being said, I don’t say there’s no « early warnings ». But things are complicated. In 1958, De Gaulle, a former army general partially supported by extremist groups, installed a new constitution in France. Some thought he would overthrow the republic, but he didn’t. At all!
Mood -1 🙁
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@dataandpolitics I don’t say early warnings don’t matter, my point is they are extremely hard to read.Permalink
Mood -3 🙁