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So far my hot take of the night is: the US presidential electoral system is super hard to predict
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Mood +2 🙂
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And I am glad I resisted all of my friends' call to make a predictionPermalink
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Mood +3 🙂
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And I am considering whether all those fancy prediction models are really useful or not. Not dunking here, because I see why they would make sense. But maybe the hill is just too steep.Permalink
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Mood +2 🙂
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Also, regardless of the results, clearly the polls missed *a lot*. But I don't know if it's due a lack of "quality" or methodological flaws, or because the overall electoral system has just way too much degrees of freedom to get polled somewhat correctly.Permalink
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Mood -1 🙁
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Another question I have is how much super targeted advertising via social networks like Facebook actually impacts the election My intuition is "an awful lot", but it's just an intuitionPermalink
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Mood +2 🙂
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I especially wonder *why* the Latino vote shifted so much in favor of Trump. What happened? In a sense, it's 2016 all over again: an electorate usually Dem-leaning turning for the GOPPermalink
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Mood +2 🙂
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(With a significant caveat though: we don't know at this point if this shift is enough for Trump to win the election)Permalink
Mood +5 🙂