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@robinhanson Not really The actual argument is "conditionally to what I know about the dynamics of pandemics, I’m pretty sure it’s bad" And "pretty sure" actually means "I’m not an expert of this field so I should stay careful about the possibility of being wrong"
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@robinhanson And no, I’m not suggesting you’re uninformed, I’m saying you are 🙂 And the reason why I don’t point out to specific points and stayed more general is because it would take time to do so, and I don’t have this time right now
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@robinhanson I just asked to specialists in epidemiology and related fields their opinion though, so I’m expecting to better assert my uncertainty about if I’m correct or not in the upcoming days