simardcasanova’s avatarsimardcasanova’s Twitter Archive—№ 19,873

      1. This "disturbing & extreme option" is based on a fundamental misunderstanding of how a pandemic works When we, economists, go on a field that isn’t our, we should always make sure we get the basic principles of this other field… A thread @robinhanson/1228400896507367424
        Permalink simardcasanova’s avatar ❤️ 8 Favorites Mood -4 🙁
    1. …in reply to @simardcasanova
      This coronavirus pandemic is *not* the first, public health experts know how to deal with this (because it already happened…) and mostly no, the world won’t collapse because of this pandemic This outbreak, although serious, is also benefiting from an exaggerated media coverage
      Permalink simardcasanova’s avatar Mood -7 🙁
  1. …in reply to @simardcasanova
    Basically, a flu kills people with a weaker immune system: already sick people, older and younger people. The rest is fine, and will survive So the *actual* public health question is how to minimize the exposure of those people at risk?
    simardcasanova’s avatar Mood -6 🙁
    1. …in reply to @simardcasanova
      I don’t have an answer to that, as I’m not a specialist, but I’m pretty sure "infecting more people" is not an answer… You can’t perfectly control a pandemic, and you don’t want to increase the risk of infecting *more people* susceptible to die as a byproduct of a "solution"
      Permalink simardcasanova’s avatar Mood -2 🙁
      1. …in reply to @simardcasanova
        My understanding is that the goal is to kill the propagation of the virus, aka to alter the dynamics of the pandemic Usually it’s done with a vaccine, but as we don’t have one for this virus, it’s by isolating infected patients
        Permalink simardcasanova’s avatar ❤️ 1 Favorite Mood -5 🙁
        1. …in reply to @simardcasanova
          China decided to do that on a larger scale by isolating entire cities But this solution has an **extremely well documented** trade off: you may prevent the spread of the virus outside the city, but you’ll increase the spread of the virus *inside* the city
          Permalink simardcasanova’s avatar Mood +1 🙂
          1. …in reply to @simardcasanova
            In other words: it’s not really the total number of infected people that matters, but their geographical/spatial distribution
            Permalink simardcasanova’s avatar Mood -1 🙁
            1. …in reply to @simardcasanova
              Once again, the propagation of a virus is a complex issue, with tons of research already done on this subject We’re economists, not public health researchers. And once again, maybe we should speak more carefully when we go on a different field than ours.
              Permalink simardcasanova’s avatar Mood +2 🙂
              1. …in reply to @simardcasanova
                Especially if at the end, what we offer is such a "disturbing" and "extreme" solution Because in this case, the first adjective that comes to my mind is not those two, but rather "ill informed"
                Permalink simardcasanova’s avatar Mood -3 🙁
                1. …in reply to @simardcasanova
                  You may wonder how I’m more qualified to speak of these issues First, I’m absolutely not a specialist, and I will happily correct myself if I say anything false in this thread BUT…
                  Permalink simardcasanova’s avatar Mood -1 🙁
                  1. …in reply to @simardcasanova
                    I worked with models of virus propagation in the past, even if the paper hasn’t been released yet I watched this 45min FAQ (in French) done by Tania Louis, who has a PhD in… molecular virology, so she’s much closer to a public health specialist youtu.be/aL6KCwzdK0E
                    Permalink simardcasanova’s avatar ❤️ 1 Favorite Mood 0
                    1. …in reply to @simardcasanova
                      And overall, I try to listen and read a lot of things by the specialists of this subject This thread is a modest attempt to summarize what I understood of the basic principles of how a virus spreads, and almost everything there screams *DON’T PROPAGATE THE VIRUS EVEN MORE*
                      Permalink simardcasanova’s avatar Mood -2 🙁