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Goddamit one poll is just ONE observation Don’t draw ANY conclusion from ONE data point Plus Obama saw an increase in his popularity before his reelection. Trump never had more than ~45% of positive ratings, when Obama started his term at 65%… projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/ @NumbersMuncher/1224715109584506880Permalink
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Mood +6 🙂
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Nobody knows who the hell will win the election, in part because we don’t know yet who will oppose Trump Elections are zero sum games, and I’m not sure it’s that safe to make predictions on their outcome when we only know one of the player… @numbersmuncher/1224705152743092225?s=21 @NumbersMuncher/1224705152743092225Permalink
Mood +1 🙂
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Plus another reason to be extra careful about predictions drawn from the past is that Trump is *extremely unusual* Remember 2016? Predictions from the past told us Hillary would win… It is as if nobody with an audience learnt anything about overconfident predictions 😑
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Mood 0
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Btw I’m not saying he won’t win, or that those numbers are meaningless I’m just saying: be careful in how we interpret them Stupidity is making the same mistake again and again…Permalink
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Mood -1 🙁