simardcasanova’s avatarsimardcasanova’s Twitter Archive—№ 11,690

  1. In case you wonder, US politics isn't the only one that is messy… More seriously, the EU stands firm against the UK demands, especially because 1) the UK has virtually no bargaining power 2) the EU has an incentive to "punish" the UK to deter anyone tempted to leave. 1/12 @eucopresident/1093112742293266435
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    1. …in reply to @simardcasanova
      As a kind of federation, the EU prioritizes the well-being of its members instead of the well-being of "foreign" countries. Here, Ireland does not want a border with Northern Ireland, as it could bring back the civil war in NI. And the EU – of course – backs Ireland. 2/
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      1. …in reply to @simardcasanova
        Two paths are on the table: 1) the UK accepts EU demands = deal, but bad for the UK 2) the UK refuses EU demands = no deal, even worse for the UK I don't see any other path. In particular, the path "the UK refuses EU demands and gets a deal" is delusional. 3/
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        1. …in reply to @simardcasanova
          A no deal option would be costly for the EU, but a deal where the UK demands are satisfied would be even worse, as it would basically jeopardises the whole European project. And the EU hasn't shown *any* willingness to renegotiate on the Irish border. 4/
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          1. …in reply to @simardcasanova
            In *every* option, the UK will suffer. If there is a deal, UK's economy will continue to be hit with a severe blast as trade with the EU will become (much) more costly. 5/
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            1. …in reply to @simardcasanova
              But worse, in this scenario, a border between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK will take place. Imagine California decides to leave the US, but the US imposes a border between Northern California and SoCal. 6/
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              1. …in reply to @simardcasanova
                If there is no deal, UK's economy will suffer even more. Ten of thousands (if not more) jobs will be destroyed, companies will fly the UK, especially in the finance industry. To give you an idea, the finance industry accounts for 6.5% of UK's GDP. researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/SN06193 7/
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                1. …in reply to @simardcasanova
                  (Any financial institution established within the EU can operate in all the EU countries – thanks to the "financial passport". Without a deal, the UK will lose this passport, and financial firms located in London would have to go somewhere else to operate in the continent.)
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                  1. …in reply to @simardcasanova
                    But no deal also means a border between Ireland and Northern Ireland. Once again, easing the border helped to solve the NI troubles among Catholics and Protestants. Is the UK ready for a potential another round of troubles? en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Troubles 8/
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                    1. …in reply to @simardcasanova
                      Also, Scotland. The Scotts voted against the Brexit, and in 2014 55% of them voted to remain within the UK. But will they still want to stay within UK after Brexit (with or without a deal)? I wouldn't bet too hard on that. 55% is not a huge margin. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum 9/
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                      1. …in reply to @simardcasanova
                        In my view, the Brexit referendum was a huge, and incredibly stupid, political mistake. David Cameron will be remembered for being one of the most reckless politician ever elected. And the Brexit campaign used deception and manipulation. Russia played a role too… 10/
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                        1. …in reply to @simardcasanova
                          In the US, Trump won't last forever. His "legacy", for what it worths, will eventually fade. But since the Brexit vote, I'm afraid the UK itself is in danger. It could explode. The UK isn't a federation. It's something else. And Wales also voted against the Brexit… 11/
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                          1. …in reply to @simardcasanova
                            So yeah, maybe Tusk's words were a bit unusual in diplomatic circles. But when a 200+ years old country is in danger to explode because of its leaders' stupidity, ego and manipulations, yes, those "leaders" deserves a "special place in hell". en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom 12/
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                            1. …in reply to @simardcasanova
                              (A third path would be for the UK to have a Norway-like deal with the EU. Basically, Norway follows the same rules as any other EU country, but as it is not a member of the Union, it has very little power to influence those rules.
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                              1. …in reply to @simardcasanova
                                So what's the point of leaving the EU if it's to follow its rules while not being able to influence them anymore? It's also stupid – but it would probably be the least dreadful option for the UK, as it wouldn't impose a border between NI and the rest of the UK.)
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